Gunrunning

According to the White House, its arms deal with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Israel is meant to counter Iranian power in the Middle East, and that country's desire to build a nuclear arsenal. For example, part of the deal with Saudi Arabia, for example, calls on stricter enforcement of trade restrictions with Iran.

I'm not sold by that.

Someone in the administration or the relevant departments has to understand that further arming Iran's neighbors will only strengthen its resolve to go nuclear. A confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia or Egypt would never get to the point where the new weapons would make a difference. I doubt even Israel would dare attack Iran on the eve of its developing a nuclear weapon. We've seen how much pressure Iran can exert on Israel via Hezbollah, and it's safe to assume their power has since grown. Beyond that, it would seem a little counter intuitive for Israel to go along with a huge arms deal with the Saudis and Egypt. Ehud Olmert even said at a cabinet meeting that Israelis “understand the need of the United States to support the Arab moderate states, and there is a need for a united front between the U.S. and us regarding Iran.” But then you read this:

Mr. Burns said that under the plan American military aid for Israel would increase to $3 billion annually over 10 years, from $2.4 billion now.

Matthew Yglesias also points to an interesting point made by Brad Plumer. The Saudi Royal family keeps "the size of the national army and air force to the barest minimum" for fear of a coupe. Have the Saudis all of the sudden decided to change this policy?

So what's behind the arms deal?

The only answer I can up with is that it has nothing to do with Iranian power in the region as a whole, but with Iranian power in Iraq. The administration needs the Saudis' help in Iraq, starting with collaboration with the Maliki government. It makes no sense to me that the administration needs to spend billions of dollars in military aid in order to keep Sunnis and Shiites at each other's throats. But that does seem like a reasonable price to get them to work together.