Real regime change

Hiatus over. I need to post about this.

Real regime change comes from inside. I’m not going to get into a semantics argument, but at least we can all agree that it’s less likely to generate an insurgent movement.

We’re now seeing the second such movement of the year in Lebanon (the first one being Yushchenko’s Orange Revolution). Anyway, it appears that the government has collapsed under pressure from popular demonstrations in Beirut and opposition in parliament. This is the kind of regime change Americans need to be encouraging but it always seems to happen without us even knowing that it’s about to.

I suppose one could make the argument that the American intervention in Iraq has encouraged opposition parties to antagonize their governments but I don’t know how valid that is. It’s the kind of self-congratulatory argument that takes credit away from the actual people that faced down oppression. I love it when stupid people parrot out the notion that Reagan ended the Cold War and defeated the Soviet Union. What about the fucking people that stood in front of scores of tanks for days while Reagan, half amnesiac half narcoleptic, was taking mid-afternoon naps?

The U.S. can only assist such movements. And now it needs to foster democracy in Lebanon with surgeon-like precision.

Lebanon is the most liberal Arab country. How liberal? In the Arab world this question answered in by looking at the women of the country. Look at the picture below. Had you no auxiliary information, where would you think these women were from? Najaf or Cleveland? (Also, look at their hands, what do they want? In this context, is that not the most poignant hand gesture you've ever seen?

If that doesn't convince you, then maybe this brief account by an Egyptian friend upon returning from Lebanon will: "you can buy porn in Beirut!"

But it could easily go the other way. This is not an American victory, and it certainly is not an Israeli victory. The Israeli and the Syrians are so pitted against one another that every surrounding country has become a stage for their antagonism. And many innocent Lebanese died because of this. This is a Lebanese victory that Americans and Israelis need to support, while only making sure that there's no outside influence (including from our governments). The Lebanese, if left alone--and they've wanted nothing more for decades--will make the right decision.