Check out my book review in today's Miami Herald.

If only we could get one of these brains in the White House.

Blogal Warming

I found this (realclimate.org/) on Josh Marshall's blog. (He posted about it at 3:42 a.m. at which time the subject must have seemed exhilarating.)

Regardless, the site is interesting enough to merit a mention and permanent link.

On an unrelated note: I should get some lunch.

It's always ourselves we find in the blogosphere

I thought it was funny to find this on a Philly blog. I think Miami residents in general are happy that Bill Kamal is going to jail for attempted child molestation--especially those who are already in jail waiting for him to arrive. Maybe I should stop reading Wonkette lest I turn every post into a treatise on sodomy.

Creepy

http://www.guardian.co.uk/online/news/0,12597,1369644,00.html

Good column by Frank Rich:

Ms. Wood was being asked about that on "Crossfire" because a new Congressional report, spearheaded by the California Democrat Henry Waxman, shows that various fictions of junk science (AIDS is spread by tears and sweat, for instance) have turned up as dogma in abstinence-only sex education programs into which American taxpayers have sunk some $900 million in five years. Right now this is the only kind of sex education that our government supports, even though science says that abstinence-only programs don't work - or may be counterproductive. A recent Columbia University study found that teens who make "virginity pledges" to delay sex until marriage still have premarital sex at a high rate (88 percent) rivaling those that don't, but are less likely to use contraception once they do. It's California, a huge blue state that refuses to accept federal funding for abstinence-only curriculums, that has a 40 percent falloff in teenage pregnancy over the past decade, second only to Alaska.

Get your head out of Sharon's ass Safire!

Is that Bill Safire a schmuck or what? In today's NYT, he extolls Bush for this quote:

"Achieving peace in the Holy Land is not just a matter of pressuring one side or the other on the shape of a border or the site of a settlement. This approach has been tried before without success. As we negotiate the details of peace, we must look to the heart of the matter, which is the need for a Palestinian democracy."

Of course this is rhetorical wink wink nudge nudge, for Israel has something close to carte blanche--if not the thing itself--and the Palestinians need to pick a leader who will take the best deal Israel is willing to offer which is usually no deal at all. Oh yes, we're on a road to nowhere. Also, what Bush and Safire fail to mention is that Arafat, horrible as he was, was democratically elected in 1996.

Democracy in Palestine does not automatically mean a peace deal. Israel needs to be willing to dismantle the majority of the settlements in the West Bank or offer some kind of compensation to the Palestinians in exchange for those it intends to keep. Safire seems to think that a Palestinian East Jerusalem is off the table, and it probably is. But not because Arafat decided to go to war, which is Safire's explanation, but because Ariel Sharon sabotaged the peace talks to get himself elected.

And I don't want to hear any more about violence. There's commensurate violence on all sides. (Even that is a little unfair to the Palestinians since they've lost three times more people than the Israelis in the last intifada but I'd rather not count bodies.) The ridiculousness of the road map is that it required that Palestinians denounce violence but it didn't have a similar provision for Israelis. And that's my rant on the Middle East.

Rumstud answers questions from soldiers in Kuwait

From NYT:

"Why do we soldiers have to dig through local landfills for pieces of scrap metal and compromised ballistic glass to uparmor our vehicles?" Wilson asked. A big cheer arose from the approximately 2,300 soldiers in the cavernous hangar who assembled to see and hear the secretary of defense.
Rumsfeld hesitated and asked Wilson to repeat his question.
"We do not have proper armored vehicles to carry with us north," Wilson said after asking again.
Rumsfeld replied that troops should make the best of the conditions they face and said the Army was pushing manufacturers of vehicle armor to produce it as fast as
humanly possible.
And, the defense chief added, armor is not always a savior in the kind of combat U.S. troops face in Iraq, where the insurgents' weapon of choice is the roadside bomb, or improvised explosive device that has killed and maimed hundreds, if not thousands, of American troops since the summer of 2003.
"You can have all the armor in the world on a tank and it can (still)
be blown up," Rumsfeld said.

Everything can be blown up Rummie. The trick is to make the vehicles, you know, not as easy to blow up. The soldiers understand this simple concept. If scrap metal from junk yards is saving some lives, imagine how many more would be saved by proper armor.

Praise for Graham

Bull Moose ponders the question "is it possible to believe that the war in Iraq was unwise and remain a hawk?" this morning. And offers this answer:

The short answer, of course it is. But nevertheless, much of the left is weak on the question of the over-all war against Islamist jihadism. The prime example of an anti-war hawk, however, is retiring Senator Bob Graham of Florida. Indeed, Senator Graham was a prophet about much of what transpired in this war. From the beginning, he did not believe that Iraq was the menace of the Administration's claims.

But, Graham is far from a dove. He has argued that the main threat in this war comes from two primary sources - Saudi funding of extremists and Iran along with their allies in Hezbollah. Ironically, Iran may emerge as the big winner in the war as they extend their influence over the Shia majority in Iraq.

They're right. Graham has had an almost eerie prescience throughout this whole affair. It's a little saddening that he couldn't make that work for him in the primaries.

Filibuster damn you!

This sounds lacking all nuance--because it is--but unabashed bitching is the reason why Republicans keep winning elections. The democrats need to stop their unifying the country rhetoric and constant capitulation to the Bush administration and start filibustering everything. Filibuster the appointment of the White House men's room attendant for all I care. Just fight back! If they want a divided country they can have it. There will be plenty of time to unify come November 2006.

Hitchens:

So here is what I want to say on the absolutely crucial matter of secularism. Only one faction in American politics has found itself able to make excuses for the kind of religious fanaticism that immediately menaces us in the here and now. And that faction, I am sorry and furious to say, is the left. From the first day of the immolation of the World Trade Center, right down to the present moment, a gallery of pseudointellectuals has been willing to represent the worst face of Islam as the voice of the oppressed. How can these people bear to reread their own propaganda? Suicide murderers in Palestine—disowned and denounced by the new leader of the PLO—described as the victims of "despair." The forces of al-Qaida and the Taliban
represented as misguided spokespeople for antiglobalization. The blood-maddened thugs in Iraq, who would rather bring down the roof on a suffering people than allow them to vote, pictured prettily as "insurgents" or even, by Michael Moore, as the moral equivalent of our Founding Fathers. If this is liberal secularism, I'll take a modest, God-fearing, deer-hunting Baptist from Kentucky every time, as long as he didn't want to impose his principles on me (which our Constitution forbids him to do).

Hitchens makes a good point here though he's quick to avoid the nuances of the counterargument as usual. The fact is that the Constitution, for example, doesn't explicitly cover the right of a woman to have an abortion (remember Blackmun's penumbras decision) or the right to marry whomever you want. And many of his mild-mannered deer-hunting Kentuckians are trying to codify laws to restrict or prohibit these.

Good review by Hitchens in NYT Book Review.

Oh Jennifer Connelly, how do I love thee?

Jennifer's answer to the question "what turns you off?" from the Proust questionnaire on Inside the Actors Studio: “It starts with ‘George’ and ends with ‘Bush.’”

Brazile v. Brooks

I just got back from the Brazile Brooks brawl--actually it was very civil. Donna Brazile was her usualy saucy self but David Brooks, whom I had never seen speak, was brilliant, witty and nothing short erudite. It's a shame, or not?--I can't decide--that he's not the least representative of his party.

I'm going to post the schedule of events I'm going to be attending at the fair later on; After I eat, which is now my top priority.

On an unrelated note, this is a very good post by James Wolcott on Andrew Sullivan.

Miami Book Fair

Just got back from the Miami Book Fair opening ceremony. They had free wine so I enjoyed myself. Going to go back for the Donna Brazille/David Brooks debate in about 30 min. I'll probably be blogging the goings on at the fair especially my harassing of Tom Wolfe so check back.

I wish I had something intelligent and insightful to say--a graceful and inspiring dictum to the American left. Imagine if you will the losers' St. Crispin's Day speech. But I neither have the energy nor the desire to think of anything of the sort.

With 95 percent of precincts reporting in FL and Bush five points ahead, I think it's safe to say that the state is going to Bush again.

Kerry now needs to win these states: OH, MN, IO, MI and WI, or OH, MN, IO, MI, NV and NM.

Things are looking grim for the senator boys and girls.

Scratch that

Again from USA Today:

9:30 p.m. ET: No breakout for youth vote
It's not turning out to be a breakout year for the youth vote, with 18 to 24-year-olds making up about the same proportion of voters as in 2000, exit polls indicate. But total numbers of young voters appear up with turnout. More significantly, exit polls indicate that voters aged 18-29 favor Kerry over Bush by 12 percentage points, while their counterparts favored Sen. Al Gore by only 4 percentage points in 2000.

From USA Today (scroll down):

7:24 p.m. ET: Youth turnout high
Younger voters are turning out in larger proportion this year, compared with 2000. Seventeen percent of those surveyed in early exit polls were between 18 and 29 years old, compared to 9% in 2000.
One result of having such stark issues: people made up their minds earlier. In 2000, 69% said they had made up their mind more than a month before the election. This year, 79% had made up their minds a month before the election. Late-deciding voters broke in Kerry's favor, and those who decided sometime in the first few weeks of October (think debates) broke strongly in favor of Kerry. Early deciders were split.

Early exit polls showed women going to the polls in disproportionate numbers: 57% of the voters are female, 43% male. In each of the last three presidential elections, the proportion was 52% female, 48% male.
More voters listed moral values as the issue that mattered in their presidential vote, followed closely by those who listed the economy/jobs and terrorism. Seventy-nine percent of Bush voters said moral values mattered most, compared to 22% of Kerry voters. Kerry voters were mostly likely to cite Iraq and the economy.

Not much to report. Stuff is coming in pretty slowly.

Obama won in Illinois. Big surprise.

AP has Bush leading in FL by about 10 points but I just found out that polls are still open in Miami Dade and Broward. Those should tip the scale a bit once they close.

I should have a lot more to post at around 10 p.m.

Bush is way ahead in the popular vote according to NYT.

Polls close in an hour in FL. Everyone please get out and vote.

Kerry 311/Bush 213

Zogby is calling the election for Kerry by a considerably wide margin. Nevada and Colorado are too close to call.

Bush is ahead in the popular vote however.

From MyDD (special thanks to Alex Segura):

Ohio - African American precincts are performing at 106% what we expected, based on historical numbers. Hispanic precincts are at 144% what we expected. Precincts that went for Gore are turning out 8% higher then those that went Bush in 2000. Democratic base precincts are performing 15% higher than GOP base precincts.

Florida - Dem base precincts are performing 14% better than Bush base precincts. In precincts that went for Gore, they are doing 6% better than those that went for Bush. African American precincts at 109%, Hispanic precincts at 106%.

Pennsylvania - African American precincts at 102% of expectations, Hispanics at 136% of expectations. The Gore precincts are doing 4 percent better than bush precincts.

Michigan- Democratic base precincts are 8% better than GOP base states. Gore precincts are 5% better than Bush.

Kerry doing very well with Hispanic voters, Cubans included

From Daily KOS:

Hispanics
2000/2004
Bush 65/53
Gore 35/
Kerry /46

Cuban-Americans
2000/2004
Bush 82/68
Gore 17/
Kerry /32

Slate is confirming what I posted earlier. Kerry's ahead in the exit polls but by a smaller margin.

Early exit polls are looking very very good!

But like Atrios warns "take with grain of salt."

This is from www.mydd.com but their server is being overloaded so I'll repost.

AZ CO LA PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA NH
45 48 42 60 52 51 51 50 58 52 49 57 --> Kerry
55 51 57 40 48 48 47 48 40 43 49 41 --> Bush

Right On!

From NYT:

A poll by MTV and Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and
Engagement said that this year, young people were showing the highest interest
in the presidential election since 1992.

I just read that Bush won Dixville Notch--yes, this is some breaking blogging I'm doing here--by a margin of almost 3 to 1. Why is this relevant? It isn't. Who cares what a handful of farmer New Hampsherites think? Don't they still have butter churning and walkmen in Dixville Notch?

On a post election results post

I was thinking about what to post once the election results are decided when I ran into James Wolcott's thoughts on the subject.

I am preparing myself for either outcome today. Should Kerry win, I will post an important statement called "A Time for Healing," or something equally noble-sounding. Should Bush win, I shall post a statement of philosophical resignation tentatively titled "Good, Go Ahead, America, Choke on Your Own Vomit, You Deserve to Die." The latter will probably require a little more tweaking.

I'd say he pretty much got it right.