blogging and the revolution

So I haven't yet posted anything on the Fidel Castro thing, because I really didn't have much to say, and other people were covering it far better than I would. The Herald's coverage is overwhelming. I was working for them when Tom Fiedler again brought up "the Cuba plan" but I never expected the coverage to be this thorough. Critical Miami, for example, which was featured on the Miami Herald along with Stuck on the Palmetto, has a great live blog about the news.

There's a trend appearing that usually pops up among some exile groups and it's being propagated in the local blogosphere by the right wing, Cuban-American blogs, like Babalu Blog, and being echoed in Critical Miami as well, that this is the time for Cubans in the island to take to the streets and topple the government. This is Babalu quoting the ubiquitous guy on Eight Street:

One guy at Calle Ocho being interviewed by local news said everything that needs to be said: "While we celebrate here, I urge the Cuban people in Cuba to take to the streets. This is the opportune moment. Now is the time."

(The bold type is his.) I've always been uncomfortable with these calls made from behind the aegis of American culture. They're not really irresponsible as Cubans know better than to the take to the streets due to calls from a blog, but they're a little disingenuous. I seriously doubt Cubans on the island will take to the streets sometime soon, not because they lack courage, but because they have an abundance of smarts. No one wants to be shot on the possible eve of political change. It's cute that they're getting moral support for an imaginary coup from blogs in Miami, but moral support doesn't cost anything, and it never stopped a tank or bullet.

I've been thinking about what's going on with Castro for the last couple of hours. Andres Oppenheimer has a couple of suggestions. The first one being that the Cuban government is telling the truth, which is quite possible; the second one being that Castro is either incapacitated or dead, and they're trying to ease the transition, which is also likely; and the third is that this is some kind of test of loyalty to filter out the officials who are not entirely loyal to the regime, which I think is highly unlikely. Castro's a risk taker, but he understands that his regime has never been weaker--even if he wasn't sick--and I doubt he's willing to gamble with that.

There's a third possibility, that as far as I can tell no one has mentioned, and that is that Castro may just want to retire. He's mentioned it before and that doesn't rule out that he may be dying. But look at the this scenario. He emerges in a couple of weeks, says that he's sick and old, and though he still wants to serve the Cuban people, his younger brother is more fit for the job now. I don't know, it doesn't seem that far-fetched to me.